First Long Island Investors, LLC was honored to host Dr. Meena Bose, Chair of Presidential Studies at Hofstra University, at the Garden City Hotel on October 30^th for our semi-annual Thought Leadership Breakfast.  Dr. Bose is the author of “Shaping and Signaling Presidential Policy: The National Security Decision Making of Eisenhower and Kennedy”, and the editor of several volumes in presidential studies. 

The discussion, which focused on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, began with Dr. Bose providing context surrounding the current political climate of the United States.  She discussed how the country is more divided than ever and faces a multitude of challenges, making the 2024 election highly consequential.  Dr. Bose noted that it is not just the presidential election that will impact America; the House and Senate elections will also shape the future of our country.  The composition of these two legislative branches will be crucial in determining policy moving forward.

Dr. Bose drew parallels to the 2016 election and compared former President Trump’s positions then and now.  Although former President Trump was considered an underdog in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Dr. Bose emphasized that the 2016 race offered a more apt comparison for 2024 due to the significant impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on the 2020 election. 

At the time of the 2016 election, various factors seemed to point to Hillary Clinton’s victory, including national polls, the candidates perceived political leadership qualities, party support, fundraising success, and overall public opinion.  However, Dr. Bose pointed out that a crucial shift in voter support within Democratic-leaning states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin was not adequately recognized.  This oversight contributed to Trump’s ultimate victory in 2016, despite Clinton’s favorability by many metrics.  

Looking ahead to the 2024 election, Dr. Bose underscored that the outcome will hinge on the performance of the swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The deciding factor for voters in these battleground states, she suggested, will be the issues they prioritize most – namely the economy, immigration, foreign policy, and reproductive rights.

Dr. Bose pointed out that former President Trump seems to be performing better in polls compared to his previous campaigns against Clinton and Biden, despite being behind nationally in those races.  Dr. Bose referenced two methods for predicting the election winner that historically have had very high success rates.  The first method is Nate Silver’s data-driven approach, which at the time pointed to former President Trump having a slight edge over Vice President Harris.  The second method was created by Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections using his “13 keys” system.  This approach focuses on the political landscape and the incumbent party’s performance rather than on polling or other conventional metrics. According to Lichtman’s model, the candidate who wins the majority of the thirteen keys is likely to prevail in the election.  Lichtman’s method predicted Vice President Harris as the winner.  The voters have since spoken, and we now know the outcome of the election.  Hopefully, the country can come together and work towards a brighter future.